The Logic of Failure
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
There is an old joke stating that prediction is difficult, especially regarding the future. Anyone that has ever tried to model or operate a complex system, or even gauge the effects of a change in business process, will understand how true that is. In his book The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations, Dietrich Dörner explains why sometimes the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry.